A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
